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"Not Q.E." - Q.E. Light Could Change Everything...

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F'ED ANNOUNCEMENT ON FRIDAY MAY CHANGE EVERYTHING 

Shown here is what happened when the Massive QE was launched in the Fall of 2011... I'm showing 10 year charts of Gold and Nasdaq monthly... basically what we need to understand here is regardless of anything else fundamental in the economy... the sheer "liquidity" of these events can pour into the market and we see valuations skyrocket not based on any fundamentals but the sheer size of fund flows competing for assets.

Now when people can realize huge gains in equities, they are going to roll out of "risk off" investments like gold and precious metals... and in 2011 what the gold bugs thought was going to be an event to propel the likes of gold  to $5000 as the banks printed "free money" - turned into the biggest gold selloff in history.

We can't say "this time is different"... or it will be different.  We're putting this info out here for you to understand the possibilities... I'm bearish myself based on what I see in the fundamentals, and I do believe there will be hell to pay for some of these bank actions like negative interest, money printing etc.  HOWEVER, as a technician, I can never let the facts get in the way of my chart reading.  We could literally go to our graves and these policies continue for 100 years, nobody knows the outcome.

We're going to proceed with this day-by-day in our forecasts, and tell the story as reflected in the charts, not as we'd like it to be.  

First here's what happened to Gold from 2011 to present.. we saw a decline of 870 points from 1920 to 1050... and right now we retraced to around 1560.. so that is 510 points...just short of that .618R level of retracement.

EGm26ktU0AEPhEm.jpg

 

Here's a chart of Nasdaq during that period... the October 2011 low was around 2300, and our last high was over 8300... that is up 360% vs. a negative return in Gold.  

EGm5zGHVUAA0n60.jpg

 

So it's time to think carefully about those charts in the days ahead... we still have to be up for the concept that it actually might "be different this time" but let's let the market tell us if that's the case...

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Now that we have established that QE is a disaster for gold and commodities....

Let's look at some so-called "Commodity Currencies"

QE has been a DISASTER for "Commodity Currencies"  like AUD, CAD, and NZD... take a look at these monthly charts... 

 

 

audusd102619 qe.JPG

usdcad102619m qe resolution.JPG

nzdusd102619 m qe fallout.JPG

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Friday it will be 4 weeks after our original post...

Let's look at what Nasdaq has done up to now ...

 

 

$NASDAQ Not QE Progress 110719.JPG

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