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VOLUME DYNAMICS

Trading Coach

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  1. F'ED ANNOUNCEMENT ON FRIDAY MAY CHANGE EVERYTHING Shown here is what happened when the Massive QE was launched in the Fall of 2011... I'm showing 10 year charts of Gold and Nasdaq monthly... basically what we need to understand here is regardless of anything else fundamental in the economy... the sheer "liquidity" of these events can pour into the market and we see valuations skyrocket not based on any fundamentals but the sheer size of fund flows competing for assets. Now when people can realize huge gains in equities, they are going to roll out of "risk off" investments like gold and precious metals... and in 2011 what the gold bugs thought was going to be an event to propel the likes of gold to $5000 as the banks printed "free money" - turned into the biggest gold selloff in history. We can't say "this time is different"... or it will be different. We're putting this info out here for you to understand the possibilities... I'm bearish myself based on what I see in the fundamentals, and I do believe there will be hell to pay for some of these bank actions like negative interest, money printing etc. HOWEVER, as a technician, I can never let the facts get in the way of my chart reading. We could literally go to our graves and these policies continue for 100 years, nobody knows the outcome. We're going to proceed with this day-by-day in our forecasts, and tell the story as reflected in the charts, not as we'd like it to be. First here's what happened to Gold from 2011 to present.. we saw a decline of 870 points from 1920 to 1050... and right now we retraced to around 1560.. so that is 510 points...just short of that .618R level of retracement. Here's a chart of Nasdaq during that period... the October 2011 low was around 2300, and our last high was over 8300... that is up 360% vs. a negative return in Gold. So it's time to think carefully about those charts in the days ahead... we still have to be up for the concept that it actually might "be different this time" but let's let the market tell us if that's the case...
  2. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    Compare your Nasdaq chart with the dates of these peaks in the US$ Index and see if you think this possible breakout overhead is going to be bullish for the market, I don't... Our situation today on the US$ is that a breakout over 90.50 could see the US$ Index at 92 in 2 trading days or less... Chart below: We're expecting volatile times... our Daily Updates have moved to our subscriber content... From time to time we may post articles of interest in this public discussion forum. Subscribe now to get access to all of our technical insights, targets and forecasts...
  3. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    Are we on the edge of a GLOBAL FINANCIAL MELT DOWN? Mechanics of the Global Financial Melt Down... Look at Turkey... In 2009 a borrower takes out a loan in US$ for let's say $1Million Principal at 1.5 USD/TRY Now the principal of the loan will be paid back at 6-7 USD/TRY So that loan needs to be paid back at say 4-5 MM US$ Can You Imagine? And it's getting worse by the day !!
  4. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    Recognition Phase is complete... Now the panic... Overnight 96.80 on US$ Index... Short term target 97.50 Check out when we started this thread... April. If you like our market calls, don't forget to RT our Tweets !! Appreciated.
  5. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    US$ ON FAST BREAKOUT HERE... Denial portion of US$ Virus is subsiding... Recognition phase is next to sink in, followed by panic. As I have been suggesting... NEXT WEEK
  6. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    So we've had a long month of consolidation in this US$ Index... it' s time to disclose our next upside objective and that will be 97.5 per the following weekly chart...once 95 is assimilated, and we think that's happening right now in fact...
  7. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    INCREDIBLE VOLUME AND MOMENTUM ON THIS US$ INDEX BREAKOUT....
  8. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    US$ INDEX HIGHER HIGH - Higher high at 95.00, currently trading at 95.94...
  9. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    We think that the US$ Rally is for real and that some will be surprised... Our current expectation for the EUR$ is a test of the "Brexit" Base from summer of 2016 "around" 1.10 as shown in the chart below...
  10. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    So a quick update on the EUR$ - hits 1.1620 on sharp downleg - VOLUME OFF THE TOP on the 4 hour chart...
  11. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    So here's an update on that 4 hour chart... what we had was a retest of the last strongest volume high, that test came in on lighter volume at the price and then we had a price rejection with volume acceleration off the high... we're back in a sideways/down move here, and basically in a waiting mode here for F'eds and ECBs to make their moves...
  12. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    Here's a 4 hour VOLUME WEIGHTED ABC DOWN PROJECTION FOR THE EUR$ Target 1.1400
  13. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    So the EUR$ Rallied a little higher here into the 1.17s... sort of normal retracement... Now as you may know there's another little problem - the European Banking System - Current problems characterized by the star ... DB Made new all time lows in NY ADR yesterday, close to new all time low in European equivalent, DBK. So there's more to do there...
  14. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    FYI - EUR$ has BROKEN THE LOWS ON STRONGER VOLUME - WITH A PATTERN OF STRONGER VOLUME TO THE DOWNSIDE.. We are looking for S1 - 1.145 S2 - 1.110
  15. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    Rallies to 1.1647 - Close enough for Fibonacci Work... pulling back now to 1.1600
  16. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    US$ INDEX RALLIES TO 94.97 OVERNIGHT - Just short of projected 95 resistance... right on track.... Expect a pullback then more upside...
  17. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    EUR$ sliced through 1.165 as it "jumped the creek", hit a low of 1.1509 overnight and is bouncing to 1.1575 here... We can expect a consolidation now back to the 1.165 1.14 next support... NOTE ACCELERATED HOURLY VOLUME
  18. SPECIAL: EUR$ ALERT

    Now for some shorter term projections... Based on Daily Chart S1 1.1650 (test imminent) S2 1.1400
  19. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    US$ Index ticked over 94.00 at 94.04 tagging our target... So what's next? We had tight range here support of 93 and resistance at 95. So one or the other, we could plow ahead to 95 from here or pullback to 93 to set up the next move higher...
  20. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    OPEX Friday - US$ INDEX hits another higher high at 93.55... Still Looking BULLISH... Italian Banks Under Duress EUR$ is looking ugly... DB making new lows premarket If it walks, squawks and talks like a DUCK... It is a Frickin' DUCK !
  21. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    We have a higher high now at 93.50 premarket... Gold has hit our targeted range this morning and is bouncing...
  22. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    So what we have here on the US$ Index June 18 Contract today... QUALITY OF HOURLY VOLUME...
  23. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    GOLD is trading near 1295 on a new low this morning... Here's a sample of our work: From Today's Gold Forecast:
  24. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    US$ INDEX ON A BREAKOUT NOW 93.27 Still see 94.00 next resistance...
  25. SPECIAL US $ INDEX ALERT

    This move getting a little VIOLENT this morning... for example:
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