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VOLUME DYNAMICS

SPX and Consolidated Forecast 06/27/2022


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SPX GAPS UP ON STRONGER VOLUME AND PUSHES HIGHER - SPX opened at 3774 and rallied about 15 points and then pulled back to a HIGHER LOW on the day of 3743 and then RALLIED HIGHER to a HIGHER HIGH of 3802.56 and closed at 3795 and that was still inside the previous range but up almost 36 points.  This did come on stronger volume with a higher high and higher low, so those are positives.  So we've been waiting for our 3810 test, looks like we may get it tomorrow... SPX at 3795 - MAIN SPX RESISTANCE at 3802, 3810 and 3837 with MAIN SUPPORT at 3778, 3755, 3743, 3732, 3717.

SPX JUMPS THE CREEK OVER IMPORTANT RESISTANCE AT 3810 - so they had a tough time doing this in a fair fight during market hours, and instead they ignored that resistance and simply gapped over it... SPX opened at 3821 and on the low of the day, so that was a  26 pt gap up that will be filled eventually... and it didn't back off one cent as it  rallied to a high of 3913 and closed nearby at 3911 or UP 116 points... and VOLUME WAS MUCH STRONGER as we told you to expect.  So the Russell Rebalance became a big mark up event on volume for the entire market, and of course the usual cries of "the low is IN" have begun.  We don't know yet if that is truly the case, but based on the volume thrust here we should expect some follow through now into the month end, and perhaps beyond.  The breadth was extra strong on the NYSE at 79/17.  SPX at 3911 - we see resistance at 3915, 3918, 3925, 3931, 3937, 3943, 3945, 3950 and support at 3906, 3902, 3900, 3892, 3890, 3884, 3875, 3858, 3845, 3836, 3830, 3816, 3810, 3797, 3793, 3789

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NASDAQ GAPS UP ON ANOTHER DAY OF COOKIE CUTTER STRONG VOLUME at 5.2B - so the last 3 days have been about the same strong volume - we told you to expect that this week because of the RUSSELL REBALANCE and tomorrow is the FINAL day and we can expect BLOWOUT VOLUME, a lot of which comes after the close... so to say the least now this level of volume leaves important bench marks for us... NASDAQ opened at 11136 on a big gap up and pulled back early to a low of 11046, filling the opening gap and it rallied sharply higher over 11200 and then it pulled all the way back to a HIGHER 11046 LOW and rallied again, to HIGHER HIGHS at 11260 and the closing was at 11232 or UP 179 points... overall a very good day, and this still looks good for more markup.  NASDAQ at 11232 - we see resistance at 11244 , 11260, 11277, 11283, 11310, 11372, 11382, 11392, 11462, 11468. 11531, 11548, 11552, 11562, 11581, 11613, 11632, 11672 and support at 11221, 11132, 11127, 11108, 11103, 10982, 10974, 10963, 10943, 10938, 10920, 10875, 10866, 10849

NASDAQ GAPS UP 100+ POINTS and HOLDS MOST OF IT - RALLIES SHARPLY HIGHER ON VOLUME - So we had the Russell Rebalance event and it turned into a mark-up party .  NASDAQ opened at 11351, backed off just 14 points to 11337 and rallied to a MUCH HIGHER HIGH OF 11613 and closed nearby at 11607 or UP 375 points... coming on BLOWOUT VOLUME of 9.3B shares traded.  This is now 1050 points off the low from mid month on 6/16.  We think at least one more day of rally is in front of us looking at the blowout volume and the strong breadth of 65/29 and of course we are moving into the month end time frame.  We suspect that that gap is going to be filled of course, just as we are now filling the downside gaps, it's pretty flaky though, because we are filling the downside gaps with upside gaps and once again, this is turning into an "overnight" market and 100 pt gaps up are a good indication.... NASDAQ at 11607 - we see resistance at 11613, 11632, 11665, 11672, 11708, 11730, 11740, 11778, 11829, 11829, 11894, 11939, 11990 and support at 11574, 11559, 11551, 11510, 11507,  11476, 11466.

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SOXX CONTINUES TO ACT POORLY AS STOCKS RALLY AROUND IT - SOXX opened at 2633 and made a high of 2636 and headed south under 2600 and eventually fell to a LOWER LOW of 2563 and rallied to close at 2602 or DOWN only 18 points, but it also finished just under the previous low.  So we still think there's something wrong here underneath and we'll just have to see if it pops up tomorrow... SOXX at 2602, we see resistance at 2604, 2606, 2609, 2612, 2615, 2618, 2621, 2624, 2627, 2631, 2634, 2637, 2640, 2642, 2645, 2648, 2652 and support at 2618, 2615, 2612, 2609, 2606, 2604, 2599, 2596, 2594, 2590, 2586, 2584, 2582, 2578, 2575

SOXX RALLIES ON RUSSELL REBALANCE MARK UP EVENT - SOXX gapped up to the low of the day at 2639 or 37 pts and didn't look back as it rallied to a high of 2719 and close a point under at 2718 or UP 115 points.  So SOXX shook off whatever was ailing it for now, but don't be surprised if we do hear some news.... Friday was a GAP UP/TREND UP day on STRONG VOLUME and BREADTH so there should be some follow through to the upside - SOXX at 2718 - we see resistance at 2721, 2724, 2728, 2731, 2734, 2736, 2740, 2742, 2745, 2748, 2752, 2754, 2757, 2761 and support at  2718, 2715, 2712, 2709, 2706, 2704, 2699, 2696, 2694, 2690.  So it's a very long way now back to that high over 4000, therefore there's plenty of room for more rally as well.

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RUT - SIGN OF STRENGTH - AS IT PUSHED HIGHER ON VOLUME TO CLOSE OVER PREVIOUS HIGH AND ON THE CLOSING HIGH FOR THE WEEK - Well, we do have the RUSSELL REBALANCE tomorrow, so there's that too.  RUT opened at 1693 and pulled back to fill the gap at 1680 for a HIGHER LOW and it was able to rally to a HIGHER HIGH of 1714 and closed at 1711 or UP 21 points... so this looks good and should be able to show us some more upside - RUT at 1711 - we see support at 1710, 1708 1706, 1704, 1699, 1696, 1694, 1691, 1688, 1684, 1680, 1678, 1675 and resistance at  1713, 1716, 1719, 1722, 1725, 1728, 1731, 1734, 1736, 1739, 1743, 1747.

RUT - OPERATORS STAGED A VERY SUCCESSFUL RUSSELL REBALANCE AND MARK UP - prices didn't go lower this time, they were up every day this last week off the Previous 2022 low of 1641 - on Friday RUT opened on a GAP UP to the low of the day at 1720 and pushed higher to close on the exact high at 1765 and closed up 54 points, about 3% on the day, and after this smashing success we are looking for more rally as we move into the month end and quarter end to put a face on things... RUT at 1765 - we see support at 1764, 1761, 1757, 1754, 1751, 1747, 1743, 1739, 1736, 1734, 1731 and resistance at 1766, 1769, 1771, 1774, 1777, 1780, 1784, 1788, 1791, 1794, 1796, 1799, 1804, 1806, 1808, 1810, 1813

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XAU didn't look good last night, and it really looked horrible today... XAU opened at 119.60 and under the previous low, it did manage to fill the downside gap with a high of 120.91, but that was all and it fell very hard and ON STRONGER VOLUME to a NEW 2022 LOW of 114.78 and 2022 CLOSING LOW of 115.80, DOWN 4.47.  So this was a big break, and we're looking at a new trading range now of 108-121.  This looks like it can go lower here... XAU at 115 and change and we see resistance at 118, 121, 124 and support at 115, 113, 110, 108.

XAU - VOLUME LIGHTENS UP AND MINERS BOUNCE SHARPLY BACK UP - XAU opened at 115.84, gapping up 4 cts and fell under the previous low on lighter volume at 114.59 and proved a "no more sellers" point and rallied close to 5 bucks to a LOWER HIGH of 119.51 and closed at 119.34, up 3.53 for the day's lighter volume bounce.  So we'll see if this bounce "takes" as we are moving into a seasonal time of strength for the group into July and August, we may be a bit early though, we'll see if this holds.  XAU at 119 and change and we see resistance at 121, 124 and support at 118, 115, 113.  It will need to break smartly back over 121 to give us an indication that it is done with that lower 108-121 range.

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DX - ANOTHER SIDEWAYS DAY - INSIDE CONSOLIDATION ON STRONGER VOLUME - CLOSES OVER 104 again... DX opened at 104.00 on a little gap and pushed higher to 104.545 for a LOWER HIGH and fell to a low of 103.84 and it closed at 104.10 here in after hours... so really not much to add to the picture, it's in a long compression wedge and we can expect a SIZEABLE MOVE off the centerline around 104... a 2 to 3 point move, so we'll see which way it breaks.... DX at 104 and change - we see resistance at 105, 108 and support at 103, 100

DX - LONG SIDEWAYS COMPRESSION WEDGE CONTINUES - So no move yet, but when it comes it should be a strong one after a long sideways compression... We'll see if it breaks out going into the end of the month now or breaks down.  On Friday    DX opened at 104.15 and made a high of 104.28 and a low of 103.74 and closed just under 104 at 103.96 and down 14 cts from our Thursday after-hours quote.  So volume was lighter and nothing got done here, no changes to the guidance - we see resistance at 105, 108 and support at 103, 100

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GOLD IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN - GOLD opened at 1839 and rallied to a high of 1848.90 for a LOWER HIGH and fell late in the session to a LOWER LOW of 1823.50, and managed to bounce, trading at 1827.50... so that was also back inside the previous range for a Neutral... nevertheless it was a LOWER LOW ON STRONGER VOLUME - so we keep that in mind... the GOLD MINERS got whacked, so that may foretell some further weakness... GOLD at 1827 - we see resistance at 1831, 1836, 1839, 1843, 1847, 1851 and support at 1826, 1822, 1819, 1816, 1813, 1810, 1807, 1804, 1799, 1796, 1792, 1786, 1782

GOLD BENDS BUT DOESN'T BREAK YET - GOLD traded DOWN on Friday with a lower high of 1833.70 and a lower low of 1817.70, but managed to finish the day unchanged at 1830 or up 3 from our after hour quote on Thursday... Volume was lighter and this doesn't change the picture of weakness... GOLD at 1830 - we see resistance at 1831, 1836, 1839, 1843, 1847, 1851 and support at 1826, 1822, 1819, 1816, 1813, 1810, 1807, 1804, 1799, 1796, 1792, 1786, 1782

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CRUDE - INSIDE DAY OF CONSOLIDATION NEAR THE PREVIOUS LOWS - DOWN ON THE DAY - CRUDE opened at 104.42 and rallied to a high of 107.06 and fell to a HIGHER LOW of 102.32 and it is trading at 103.98 presently and down a couple of bucks from the ICE session yesterday, volume was lighter on the consolidation, so we could see more damage if it picks up on Friday... CRUDE at 103 and change - resistance at 105, 108, 110 and support at 103, 100, 98.

CRUDE VOLUME EASES AND MAKES A SHARP BOUNCE OFF THE LOWS - So we had CRUDE CLOSE UP on FRIDAY'S LIGHTER VOLUME as it opened at 103.99 and pulled back to a HIGHER LOW of 103.64 and a high of 108.58 and closed at 107.62, so that was up 3.64 from our after hours quote on Thursday... and it closed WELL OVER THE PREVIOUS HIGH, it should be able to leverage some strength here, and it's a long way to the last high just under 121 and there seems to be room for more bounce in an overall 20 dollar trading range now from 101-121.  CRUDE at 107 and change and we see resistance at 108, 110, 113 and support at 105, 103, 100.

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GS OUTSIDE BULLISH REVERSAL COMES ON A LITTLE STRONGER VOLUME - GS opened at 283.76 on a gap down and pulled back to a LOWER LOW of 278.93 and rallied to a HIGHER HIGH of 284.59 and it closed at 286.17 or UP 1 1/2 points and after the close we got the F'ed "Stress Test" results and basically all the banks passed, so that's over and GS had a good day, should be able to rally further.  GS at 286 and change - we see resistance at 289, 291, 294 and support at 286, 284, 282, 279

GS GAPS UP ON STRONGER VOLUME AFTER PASSING THE "STRESSLESS" TESTS - GS opened up almost 5 bucks at 291.00 and pulled back exactly 1.00 to the low of 290.00 and rallied to a high of 303.13 and closed at 302.75 - up over 16 bucks on the day for a SIGN OF STRENGTH - the banking index ($BKX) was also up nearly 5% so it was a day of recovery and advance for the banks, and this looks good going into the month end for more mark up.  GS at 302 and change and we see resistance at 303, 306, 308, 310, 313 and support at 303, 300, 296, 294, 291

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AAPL PUSHES HIGHER ON A LITTLE LIGHTER VOLUME - CLOSES OVER PREVIOUS HIGH - so that's all good, AAPL opened at 136.82 and pulled back to a low of 135.63 and rallied to a HIGHER HIGH Of 138.59 and closed at 138.27 or up almost 3 bucks on the day... so this looks positive and good for more rally, but we still want to caution everyone that there is something wrong with this semiconductor group and this may or may not reflect on AAPL's performance here... AAPL at 138 and change and we see resistance at 140, 144 and support at 136, 134, 131.

AAPL GAPS UP ON STRONGER VOLUME - AAPL gapped up to 139.90 and pulled back only 13 cts to 139.77, holding the gap and rallied sharply higher to 141.91 and closed nearby at 141.66.  AAPL is making a strong charge toward month end here and we can expect some further mark up into it... AAPL at 141 and change and we see resistance at 144, 146, 148 and support at 140, 136.

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UPDATE - Well, as near as I can tell, the Street thinks inflation is about to subside, and that Powell will lose his resolve to raise rates... Whatever reason they need to rally... Timing wise, the Moon Cycle has been somewhat accurate in marking turns in the market... we have the New Moon, Tuesday evening in NYC around 10PM.  So there's another reason to rally... we have the month end mark up in progress... and this came after a big mark up on Friday for the Annual Russell Rebalance... so we did get a sharp pullback off the initial morning highs, and now we are thrashing around trying to reconstruct those highs.

The systems are in full deployment mod... we're seeing the $VIX crushed and $DX is down at a lower low now currently around 103.50.

So they are loaded for bull.

 

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On 6/25/2022 at 6:52 AM, Trading Coach said:

GOLD BENDS BUT DOESN'T BREAK YET - GOLD traded DOWN on Friday with a lower high of 1833.70 and a lower low of 1817.70, but managed to finish the day unchanged at 1830 or up 3 from our after hour quote on Thursday... Volume was lighter and this doesn't change the picture of weakness... GOLD at 1830 - we see resistance at 1831, 1836, 1839, 1843, 1847, 1851 and support at 1826, 1822, 1819, 1816, 1813, 1810, 1807, 1804, 1799, 1796, 1792, 1786, 1782

GOLD STILL IN THE SLUMP....

image.png

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$VIX Crushas being used sparingly... I think they'd just like to hold on to the Friday gains...

Here:

image.png

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