Trading Coach

Today's X/Twitter Posts

So you will notice for each of our forecasts we provide a series of support and resistance pivots.  Our track record for these is remarkable and we have shared some of our work publicly in our posts on X-Twitter.  The reason to subscribe to our service is that #1 our forecasts are accurate, and #2 we have a a full library of those pivots that go back to the beginning of the bull market in 2009.  So we have all those touch points from where we are here on $NASDAQ just under 13000 down to 1265, the 2009 low, and from 4200s here on the SPX down to the low of 666.  So this may be a very long journey down, but we're going to be ready for every new leg down or up... because we have all that support and resistance data to the all time highs as well.  

So that's the reason to sign up, we don't deal in wishy-washy and spongy projections.  We give you the actual HARD TARGET NUMBERS.  It's as granular as it gets.  

Subscriber Info:

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AAPL A SIDEWAYS DAY ON STRONGER VOLUME, CLOSING IN THE TRADING RANGE AND DOWN SLIGHTLY - AAPL opened at 176.04 on a small gap up and made a HIGHER HIGH of 177.84 and a HIGHER LOW of 175.19 and it closed at 175.46 or down just 38 cts.  We could be looking at a basing pattern here for an attempt to launch it back to that 179 resistance.  There was no weakness registered today.  AAPL at 175 and change - we see support at 174, 171 and resistance at 177, 179, 181.

AAPL FINALLY BREAKS DOWN ON STRONGER VOLUME OPEX - So again we have the daily chart snippet of AAPL for the period since the F'ED FAILURE and as you can see it's down almost 10 bucks for the 7 sessions.  Normally, most of the time, AAPL has "immunity" to external events and trades on it's own trip.  That looks to have ended and it is now trending with the market.  We have earnings in the next couple of weeks on AAPL, we'll see if things change - AAPL opened at 175.31 and did not rally much on FRIDAY OPEX to a LOWER HIGH of 175.42 and actually held 4 cts of the gap down and it made a MUCH LOWER LOW of 172.64 and finished nearby at 172.88 and that was DOWN ON VOLUME, CLOSING UNDER THE PREVIOUS LOW so this looks like we can still go lower.  AAPL at 172 and change and we see support at 171, 169, 167 and resistance at 174, 177, 179.

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GS FALLS TO LOWER 2023 LOWS - THAT'S NOT GOOD - Volume remained STRONG, but lighter than the previous 2 sessions, but still in the context of STRONG - GS opened at 301.96 and bounced to a LOWER HIGH of 305.34 and fell to a LOWER 2023 LOW at 298.63 and closed on a NEW 2023 CLOSING LOW of 299.19 and DOWN 2.77 for the day.  So this was ugly, and we didn't see a sign of strength, on the contraire, an additional sign of weakness.  Now we'll see if there is an attempt to salvage this for OPEX, perhaps 300 is their number, we shall see.  GS at 299 and change and we see support at 296, 294, 291, 289, 287 and resistance at 300, 303, 305, 308, 310.

GS FELL TO NEW 2023 LOWS THIS WEEK and closed under the PREVIOUS 2023 WEEKLY CLOSING LOW at 300.05.  This is a bad sign folks.  We see GS as a market leader and not just financials so caution is warranted.  GS opened at 298.50 on Friday and it made a LOWER HIGH of 303.25 and a LOWER 2023 INTRADAY LOW of 298.10 and closed at 300.05 and you can see that was what we surmised as the target for OPEX at 300.  It's free to go lower now as the options have expired.  So while GS was UP 86 cts on a daily basis, it's the WEEKLY CLOSING LOW that's the big issue here and this does look poised to plunge lower.  GS at 300 and change - and we see support at 300, 296, 294, 291, 289 and resistance at 303, 305, 308, 310

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CRUDE BLASTS HIGHER ON A LITTLE LIGHTER STRONG VOLUME and EXPLODES LATE ON MIDEAST NEWS - So CRUDE opened at 87.22 and it made a LOWER LOW of 85.44 and rallied to a HIGHER HIGH of 89.39 and it's trading at 89.36 here in after hours, so that's up 2.29 for the day, and the pattern was a BULLISH OUTSIDE REVERSAL - that really still looks good for more rally - CRUDE at 89 and change and we see support at 89, 87, 84 and resistance at 91, 94.

CRUDE BLASTS HIGHER AFTER FED FAILURES - Attached chart snippet is the action in CRUDE since 10/12, and as you can see it went MUCH HIGHER and ON MUCH STRONGER VOLUME with a pullback on Friday on lighter volume consolidation - this looks like it will break  the previous high near 93.  CRUDE opened at 89.09 and made a HIGHER HIGH of 89.85 and a HIGHER LOW of 87.53 and it closed at 88.08 or down about a buck on Friday, lighter volume and closed INSIDE THE TRADING RANGE and in no way did it lose it's sign of strength so far based on the action.  So we're still looking for higher prices here, but we could see the pullback extend into Monday.  CRUDE at 88 and change and we see support at 87, 84 and resistance at 89, 91, 94.

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GOLD PUSHES HIGHER AGAIN ON LIGHTER VOLUME - CLOSES WELL OVER PREVIOUS HIGH - So this is TRENDING nicely now as it should because it is that type of instrument.  GOLD opened at 1960.10 and made a HIGHER LOW of 1957.00 and rallied to a HIGHER HIGH of 1990.20 and closed nearby at 1986 here in after hours... up over 20 bucks on the day and still looks strong odds for further rally into Friday's OPEX.  We'll see what the market-makers have in mind though - GOLD at 1986 - we see resistance at 1992, 1996, 1999, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019 and support at 1986, 1982, 1979, 1977, 1974, 1971, 1967, 1964, 1961, 1957, 1954, 1951, 1947, 1943, 1939, 1936, 1931, 1926, 1922, 1919.

GOLD blasted past our R-2 Target of 1971 and now we have R-3 1999 and R-4 at 2016.

GOLD BLASTED HIGHER AFTER THE F'EDS FAILURE - sort of expected and we said as much in our forecasts.  GOLD rallied 120 bucks since that failed auction and is pressing on breaking 2000, it tested it with a high of 2009 on Friday before it closed at 1994.40.  We gave you upside targets and updated them and we broke the R-2 target of 1971, and we are testing the R-3 at 1999, so we think we'll see that tested again early this week and that we'll see further upside, GOLD is in a PARABOLIC Mode here, and it is not wise to conclude that this move is finished  until we see the receipts and we don't have that at all here.  So the Ultimate target now and one we think that will cause a reaction is going to be R-5 at 2028, the final target in our series.  You may recall that we said we would see GOLD move sharply HIGHER followed by a move LOWER, and we still think that's what is happening here.  GOLD at 1994 - we see resistance at 1996, 1999, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016, 2019, 2022, 2026, 2031 and support at 1992, 1986, 1982, 1979, 1977, 1974, 1971, 1967, 1964, 1961, 1957, 1954, 1951.  The GOLD DAILY chart snippet below shows what happened since the F'ED AUCTION FAILURE on Thursday 10/12

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DX - OUTSIDE DAY OF CONSOLIDATION CLOSING DOWN BUT NEUTRAL - DX opened at 106.37 and made a HIGHER HIGH Of 106.485 and a LOWER LOW of 105.745 and it is trading at 106.03 here and that's down about 35 cts for the day.  So while we don't see a buy or sell signal from this action we do note the STRONGER VOLUME and compression is setting this up for a more dramatic move, we'll see if it happens Friday, I'm thinking more like early next week.  DX at 106 and change - we see support at 105, 103, 100 and resistance at 108, 110.

DX ROCKET IS POISED FOR TAKE OFF - now of course we're not the only people who can see this... Shown below is a snippet of DX since that Thursday 30 year auction, see what you think.  You can see the big green spike higher on the 12th and that was the long bond auction, there were a couple of auctions this week and they were also weak.  We believe the F'eds have lost the handle on the bond market, and that the notion that "they can let the market do the work for them" is nuts. The last thing in the World they want us to know is that they don't absolutely control rates...  DX had an INSIDE DAY ON LIGHTER VOLUME Friday and has been in a sideways pattern since the 12th as you can see and in that sideways pattern is COMPRESSION and we will see a DRAMATIC MOVE we believe, between now and Halloween.  Right now we still see odds for higher, and possibly dramatically higher and as high as 108-110.  DX opened at 106.03 and made a HIGHER LOW of 105.885 and a LOWER HIGH of 106.23 and closed at 105.98 or down just 5 cts for the day.  We're still looking for more rally, but we also are alert for currency INTERVENTION.  For example, the Bank of Japan, drew a line at 150 on USDJPY and it's been pressing up against that 150, we think it will break higher as intervention is failing.  DX at 105.98 - we see support at 105, 103, 100 and resistance at 108, 110.

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XAU BOUNCES BACK FROM GAP DOWN INTO A LOWER LOW AND CLOSES NEAR UNCHANGED - XAU gapped down to 116.31 and fell to a LOWER LOW of 114.89 and then rallied back to close at 116.58 and near the high of 116.88 and finished down just 10 cts on the day... so we have a CONSOLIDATION here, as XAU was somewhat resilient after a bad day on Wednesday.  So it is a bit of a wounded duck here, but we give odds for some further poke up again tomorrow - XAU at 116 and change - we see resistance at 118, 121, 124 and support at 115, 113, 110.

XAU - XAU HAS CLIMBED MUCH HIGHER SINCE THE F'ED FAILURE on the 12th - attached is a local snippet of the XAU since 10/12 and that Failed F'ed auction. XAU pushed about 10% higher since this CENTRAL BANK FAILURE and we did get a pullback on Friday, but it was just a CONSOLIDATION ON LIGHTER VOLUME and XAU only closed down 10cts after lower lows.  So this still looks good for more rally - XAU opened at 116.31 and made a LOWER HIGH of 116.88 and a LOWER LOW of 114.89 and closed at 116.48 - we see resistance at 118, 121, 124 and support at 115, 113, 110.

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RUT FALLS AGAIN AND CLOSES ON A NEW 2023 CLOSING LOW - RUT opened at 1725 on a small gap down and filled the gap with a LOWER HIGH of 1735 and then it fell to a LOWER LOW of 1700 and it closed at 1702.70 for the new 2023 CLOSING LOW and that was down 26 points on the day.  Still looks dismal with a short term downside objective of the 2023 Intraday Low now at 1695.23.  RUT at 1702 -  we see support at 1699, 1696, 1694, 1691, 1688, 1684, 1680, 1677, 1674, 1671, 1669, 1666, 1664 and resistance at 1704, 1706, 1708, 1710, 1713, 1716, 1719, 1722, 1725, 1728, 1731, 1734, 1736, 1739, 1743, 1747.

RUT LEADING THE MARKETS LOWER - the snippet of the activity since the FAILED 10/12 LONG BOND AUCTION speaks for itself, as you can see they tried to buy the dip and were CRUSHED.  RUT FELL TO NEW 2023 LOWS and CLOSED UNDER THE LOWER BOLLINGER BAND ON STRONGER VOLUME - it is a FALLING KNIFE at this point.  On Friday OPEX RUT opened at 1705 and rallied just a point on the small gap up to 1706, and another dip buy was SMACKED DOWN as it fell to a LOWER 2023 LOW of 1680.09 and closed only 70 cts higher at 1680.79 or DOWN ANOTHER 22 points on the day.  So this looks pretty bad, but to be fair we have to point out from our chart work that there is a pretty good record of successful bounces off a test of the LOWER BB, that might not happen right away though and this could sink much lower if the PRICE rides the lower band lower and lower.  RUT - DISMAL - at 1680 - we see support at 1680, 1678, 1675, 1672, 1669, 1666, 1664 and resistance at 1684, 1688, 1691, 1694, 1696, 1699, 1704, 1706, 1708, 1710, 1713, 1716, 1719, 1722, 1725.

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SOXX - ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO GAP UP FAILS IN A HUGE VOLUME REVERSAL - SOXX opened at 3444 on a gap up and then made a HIGHER HIGH of 3449 and fell to a MUCH LOWER LOW of 3356 and closed at 3367 or DOWN another 45 points.  So pretty much as expected, we had a fresh round of Kamikaze pilots who bought the dip - go down in flames.  We expect similar for FRIDAY.  SOXX at 3367 - we see resistance at 3369, 3372, 3375, 3378, 3382, 3386, 3390, 3394, 3396, 3399 and support at 3366, 3364, 3361, 3357, 3354, 3352, 3348, 3345, 3342, 3340, 3337, 3334, 3331, 3328, 3326.

SOXX ANOTHER DISASTER ON FRIDAY OPEX - CLOSES ON FRESH OCTOBER LOW - SOXX has dropped 384 points since 10/12 and the dip buyers who tried to buy this dip on Monday and Tuesday of this week were CRUSHED as you can see from our chart snippet since 10/12 - FRIDAY SOXX gapped down just 3 points to 3364 and again they bought the dip and ran it up to a LOWER HIGH of 3390 and it fell to a LOWER LOW of 3312 and closed at 3316 or DOWN 51 points on the day.  So this broke all the October lows this week and it's sitting on top of the LOWER BOLLINGER BAND AT 3305, we could see that tested early this next week.  SOXX is on the proverbial cliff here and could plunge ANOTHER 500 POINTS!!  SOXX at 3316 - we see resistance at 3318, 3322, 3326, 3328, 3331, 3334, 3337, 3340, 3342, 3345, 3348, 3352, 3354, 3357, 3361, 3364 and support at 3315, 3312, 3309, 3306, 3304, 3299, 3296, 3294, 3290, 3286, 3284, 3281, 3278, 3275, 3272, 3269, 3266, 3264, 3261.

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NASDAQ GAPS UP INTO AN UGLY REVERSAL CLOSING WELL UNDER THE PREVIOUS LOW ON MUCH STRONGER VOLUME - a classic PRICE REJECTION - NASDAQ opened at 13354 and rallied to a LOWER HIGH of 13404 and fell to a MUCH LOWER LOW of 13157 and it bounced to close at 13186 and DOWN ANOTHER 128 points for the day.  This instrument is very broken now, we still have OPEX Friday that can be manipulated higher for a day, but this could get very dark next week.  VOLUME has been light overall on this big pullback and it's likely we're going to see a VERY HIGH VOLUME WASHOUT DAY in the near future.  NASDAQ at 13186 - we see resistance at 13199, 13208, 13220, 13248, 13252, 13256, 13270, 13277, 13292, 13301, 13322, 13330, 13353, 13368, 13405, 13431, 13455, 13486,  13507 and support at 13166, 13157, 13132, 13125, 13118, 13101, 13098, 13094, 13089, 13051, 13039, 13036, 13032, 13024, 13003, 12999, 12985, 12985, 12963, 12882, 12867, 12857, 12827, 11821, 12767, 12758

NASDAQ has FALLEN 737 POINTS SINCE FAILED F'ED AUCTION on 10/12 - NASDAQ has PLUMMETED - it is approaching the lower BOLLINGER BAND at 12937, and unless the RESCUE SQUAD shows up on Sunday night, we could see that price on Monday.  FRIDAY OPEX the NASDAQ opened at 13157 on a gap down and made a LOWER HIGH of 13177 and left a small gap down and headed SOUTH to a LOWER LOW of 12977 and it bounced to close UNDER 13000 at 12983 or DOWN ANOTHER 202 points.  As you can see NASDAQ has suffered a lot of damage over the past 7 sessions and it is poised for more damage and POSSIBLY DRAMATIC.  There's no sign of strength.  NASDAQ closed at 12983 - we see resistance at 12985, 12999, 13001, 13007, 13031, 13053, 13068, 13072, 13076, 13090, 13102, 13105, 13138 and support at 12977, 12963, 12882, 12873, 12867, 12863, 12857, 12827, 11821, 12767, 12760, 12758. 

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SPX BREAKS DOWN FURTHER ON STRONG VOLUME CLOSES WELL UNDER PREVIOUS LOW AGAIN - so this has been an ugly week, the past 2 days very ugly.  SPX opened at 4321 on a GAP UP and it made a LOWER HIGH of 4339 and fell to a LOWER LOW of 4269 and closed at 4278 or DOWN ANOTHER almost 37 points.  We do have OPEX tomorrow and we could see a bounce overnight in the futures, but regardless of what happens tomorrow, this is looking very broken now.  SPX at 4278 - we see resistance at 4284, 4287, 4290, 4292, 4294, 4296, 4299, 4302, 4308, 4313, 4317, 4320, 4322, 4325, 4331, 4336, 4341, 4356, 4362 and support at 4278, 4274, 4271, 4269, 4267, 4265, 4263, 4256, 4253, 4241, 4222, 4220, 4218, 4215, 4208, 4206, 4203, 4201

THE POINT OF RECOGNITION IS AT HAND!!  We decided to share our Monday Forecast to show our work and insights into the market.  Traders may be confused about what's going on, but these markets are VERY CLEAR.  You have a choice to believe the data or listen to the discredited F'ed, who lost control of the bond market.  It's up to you to decide.  Every one needs to deal with this data and decide.  It's all here, what happened since that LONG BOND AUCTION FAILURE on 10/12/23.  We have all the charts to prove our thesis here.

SPX BREAK DOWN CONTINUES ON STRONGER VOLUME OPEX - This week, we're attaching a snippet of the issues we cover for the period since the first FAILED AUCTION on 10/12 on the LONG BOND.  It is our contention that the F'eds NO LONGER CONTROL RATES.  This was confirmed by two shitty auctions again this last week.  In short the market can now IGNORE THE FED because they don't control rates anyway.  We can't say how long this condition will last, but we have provided the information that supports this position.  We can see in EVERY CHART WE COVER - the WORLD CHANGED ON 10/12 - the POINT OF RECOGNITION IS AT HAND.

SPX has had a miserable week.  FRIDAY OPEX it ACCELERATED ON VOLUME AND PRICE - SPX opened at 4273 on a GAP DOWN, and that GAP DOWN HELD as it poked a little higher to 4276 and fell SHARPLY LOWER TO a LOWER LOW of 4223 and closed at 4224 or DOWN 53 points on the day... CLOSING WELL UNDER THE PREVIOUS LOW ON STRONGER VOLUME - So in short now, you look at my chart snippets, the market is in a SLOW-MOTION CRASH at present.  THE SPX is on a CLIFF here and could plummet much lower now as this support breaks.  You can see on that snippet ACCELERATING VOLUME DOWN - THAT IS EVIDENCE WE ARE GOING LOWER!!  

SPX closed at 4224 -  we see resistance at 4226, 4232, 4234, 4236, 4238, 4249, 4251, 4257,  4268, 4271, 4276, 4286, 4292, 4294, 4296, 4300 and support at 4222, 4220, 4218, 4216, 4208, 4206, 4203, 4201, 4188, 4181, 4177, 4175, 4173, 4170, 4167, 4164, 4162, 4160

WELCOME TO VOLUME DYNAMICS - USING VOLUME FORENSICS TO MAXIMIZE RETURNS

Here at Volume Dynamics we use Volume Analysis in Stocks, Indices, Currency and Commodity Futures Contracts to identify the market monsters. We track, chart and forecast the SPX, Nasdaq, ES, Gold and Oil - Front Month Contracts and major associated ETFs daily. Each Day our subscribers receive a forecast as well as support and resistance pivots to have a better grasp of when to get in, and when to get out. We also provide timely updates during the trading day with live twitter updates @volumedynamics . Follow us on twitter for live real-time updates.

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Thanks for your interest in Volume Dynamics.

Tom

(Trading Coach)